US: Retail sales to increase by a modest 0.2% in June - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect top line US retail sales to increase by a modest 0.2% in June following a 0.3% decline in May.

Key Quotes

“Personal spending in Q2 has been improving gradually. Core (“control”) retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building material and food services), an important component in estimating real growth in personal consumption expenditure, has been increasing steadily in recent months despite a flat reading in May. Given incoming data, we think this pause was likely transitory and forecast a healthy 0.5% m-o-m increase in core retail sales in June. The latest ISM nonmanufacturing report saw the headline index improve further to 57.4 from 56.9 in June. The report also shows that overall business of the retail trade sector is trending up and its outlook for 2017 has improved. Further, healthy consumer fundamentals such as firm job gains and income growth in recent months would be favorable for steady growth in core retail sales.” 

“For non-core components, we expect continued a decline in nominal sales at gasoline stations as domestic gasoline prices fell again in June after a decline in May. Given the slower pace of light vehicle sales, we expect a 0.1% decline in sales at autos and auto parts dealers, following a 0.2% decline in the prior month. Excluding autos, we expect retail sales to post a steady gain of 0.3%. Altogether, we expect top line retail sales to increase by a modest 0.2% in June following a 0.3% decline in May.”