AUD/JPY - Bullish 50-MA & 100-MA crossover, what’s next?

The daily chart of the AUD/JPY pair shows a bullish crossover between 50-MA & 100-MA crossover. A bullish crossover between weekly 50-MA & weekly 100-MA looks like a done deal as well. More often than not, the golden crossovers between major average works as a contrarian indicator. 

A similar crossover was seen in late Oct, 2016 and worked well, although the spot was recovering from 5-year lows. As of now, the 14-day RSI is overbought and the pair is struggling to break convincingly above 88.72 (monthly 50-MA) - 88.69 (Weekly 200-MA). The technical patterns suggest a potential for pull back, although the next move mainly depends on the quality of the Aussie jobs data and what the BOJ does tomorrow. 

Traders await Aussie jobs data and BOJ rate decision

Aussie jobs data due tomorrow at 01:30 GMT is expected to show an uptick in the jobless rate (to 5.6% from 5.5%). The economy is expected to have added 15K jobs in June as opposed to 42K jobs. 

Meanwhile, Yen traders would take cues from the BOJ rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates, QE and yield curve control policy unchanged. 

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

A weekly close above 88.90 (neckline hurdle) would mark inverse head and shoulders breakout.

An end of the day close above 89.07 (161.8% Fib ext. of June 6 low - June 20 high - June 22 low) would open doors for a sustained move higher to 90.00 levels. On the way higher, Jan 2015 low of 89.37 could offer some resistance. 

On the downside, breach of support at 88.59 (session low) would open up downside towards 88.19 (5-DMA) and 88.00 (zero levels).