Eyes on Aussie CPI: Australian Q2 CPI preview - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac forecasts for the headline CPI is at 0.6%qtr lifting the annual pace to 2.4%yr from 2.3%yr.

Key Quotes:

"June is seasonally a softer quarter with the ABS seasonal factors boosting our seasonally adjusted estimate to 0.8%qtr.

Key factors in Q2 are rising fruit, housing and health costs being partially offset by falling auto fuel. 

Core inflation is forecast to print 0.5%qtr (0.54% at two decimal places) holding the annual rate flat at 1.8%yr.  The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.51% while the weighted median forecast is 0.57%. The two quarter annualised pace of core inflation will lift slightly to 1.9%yr from 1.8%yr still holding below the bottom of the RBA’s target band; the two-quarter pace has been below the band since June 2015.

Traded prices are forecast to rise 0.9%qtr/–1.2%yr and the surge in fruit prices post cyclone Debbie flow through. Clothing & footwear are expected to have a modest seasonal bounce while holiday travel faces seasonal discounting and audio visual & computing continue their deflationary trend."