Market movers for the week ahead - Rabobank

Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank lists down the key economic releases for the week ahead from across the globe.

Key Quotes

“Last week closed off with US Q2 GDP coming in slightly lower than expected at 2.6% q-o-q annualized, and employment costs falling back from a weak 0.8% to a weaker 0.5% on the same basis.”

“This week has started off with China’s manufacturing PMI, which came in at 51.4 vs. 51.7 in June, and services PMI, which was 54.5, decent, but down from 54.9 last month. Given that as Bloomberg reports today, Chinese infrastructure spending at nearly 22% of GDP(!) is as high now as it was during the enormous post-GFC stimulus package, the “mystery” of all this sudden recovery becomes a little clearer: it’s “prudent” monetary policy and “deleveraging” at work. Next up we have Eurozone unemployment (seen 9.2%) and CPI for July, where the consensus is 1.3% y-o-y headline and 1.1% core, both unchanged from last month. Then we see the US Chicago PMI (seen falling back to 60 from 65.7, but very volatile of late).”

“Tomorrow has the unofficial Chinese Caixin PMI and the RBA rate decision, where no change is expected, along with German unemployment and Eurozone Q2 GDP, then US personal income and spending and the ISM manufacturing survey. Wednesday has Kiwi unemployment, Aussie building approvals, a rate decision in India, where a 25bp cut is on the cards, and US ADP employment along with two Fed speakers (Mester, Williams). Thursday has Aussie trade data and China’s Caixin services PMI, then services PMIs for Europe and the UK. That’s followed by the BoE and the US factory orders. Friday closes the week with Aussie retail sales, German factory orders, and then US payrolls (as well as Canadian unemployment data).”

“In short, a few big numbers in there despite summer markets and a worrying narrative playing out in the background: just don’t end up with Mackinder egg on your face.”