UK economy to recover in 2018 following a GDP growth ‘trough’ - NIESR

The UK economy will begin to recover next year, but will hit a GDP growth ‘trough’ this year, says the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). 

NIESR GDP estimates

• NIESR held 2017 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.7%
• It also held forecasts for next year steady at 1.9%

Inflation forecasts revised lower

• It sees inflation peaking at 3% by the end of this year vs. previous forecast of 3.4%

BOE rate hike in Q1 2018

“The BOE could raise rates in the first quarter of 2018 rather than the second quarter of 2019 - marking the first rate rise in nearly 11 years. This rate increase should not be seen as a tightening in policy, but instead as a modest withdrawal of some of the additional stimulus that was injected into the economy after the 2016 EU referendum," NIESR said.