South Africa: No-confidence voting in the President in focus - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that South Africa’s lawmakers will debate and vote on a long waited motion of no-confidence in the President and will be a key event for today.

Key Quotes

“While not being the first of such motions presented by the opposition parties against Zuma, this is the first time that MPs will vote secretly. In fact, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Ms Baleka Mbete, with a ‘coup de theatre’ decided to grant secret ballot to MPs yesterday. The announcement came only one day ahead of the vote, which gives a sense of the inner battles that are being fought and alliances forged within the ANC as Zuma’s ANC presidency advances towards its natural conclusion in December.”

“The vote today will also be accompanied by anti-Zuma protest march, which is at risk of turning into riots if the vote is unsuccessful. As far as our expectations are concerned, we think the odds still favour Zuma although the margin has narrowed. The secret vote definitely increases the likelihood of a successful motion of no confidence with several ANC MPs likely to vote against the President without fear of direct retaliation. However, still 201 MPs will have to vote in favour of the motion, which requires 50 ANC MPs to defect the official party line – quite a farfetched expectation. Therefore, the ZAR will likely be very volatile today regardless of the outcome. A successful motion will see USDZAR drop sharply, while its rejection may reverse recent gains and extend rand losses towards 13.40 vs USD.”