US data reviewed and GDP tracker update - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a review for the advanced goods trade balance.

Key Quotes:

"According to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Advance Economic Indicators Report, the preliminary estimate of the July goods trade balance was a deficit of $65.1bn. This trade gap is slightly greater than market expectations, but narrower than our forecast (Nomura: $67.3bn, Consensus: $64.5bn). The June goods trade deficit was revised slightly to $64.0bn, from the previously-reported $63.9bn. Goods imports fell 0.3% m-o-m, following a 0.2% decline in June. The weakness was concentrated in auto imports, which fell 2.8% following a 3.5% jump in June. Exports fell notably by 1.3%, following a strong increase of 1.5% in June. The decline in exports was led by an 8.0% decline in autos and a 4.5% decline in core consumer goods (excluding food and autos). Read our full report: Goods Trade Gap Widens in July, First Insights, 28 August 2017. 

GDP tracking update: Incoming data today raised our Q3 GDP tracking estimate 0.1pp to 3.2% q-o-q saar. Exports dropped notably, but imports fell as well, offsetting weak exports, thus leaving our estimate unchanged for the contribution of net exports to Q3 tracking. However, wholesalers’ inventory data came in stronger than expected and boosted our tracking estimate."