US: NFP likely to print 170k for August - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac expect the US NFP to print 170k for August while unemployment rate is expected to edge up slightly to 4.4%.

Key Quotes

“Nonfarm payrolls rose 209k in July following a 231k gain in June and a 145k increase in May. That leaves the average monthly gain for 2017 at 184k, broadly in line with that of 2016. Given we are now 'past' full employment, this is a very strong pace of job growth which should begin to ease.”

“On this point, each of the business survey employment indexes did pull back in July, potentially signalling a softer pace of growth in August. Yet all remain well above their long-run average levels; hence, even if growth does slow, it will still remain robust. We expect a 170k gain in August.”

“From the household survey, the unemployment rate is due for a participation-induced uptick to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. But, given the strength of household survey employment growth, there is every chance it will instead hold at 4.3%.”