EUR/USD topped near term? – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could have carved a near term top above 1.2000.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD as we suspected the rebound from the uptrend failed to regain the 1.200 level and our attention has reverted to the trend line support at 1.1841. We suspect that the market may have topped near term, but this will only be confirmed on a close below the uptrend. The new high has also been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI. Below the 2 month uptrend lies the 4 month uptrend at 1.1720”.

“Above 1.2070 sits the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168”.

“Failure at the five month uptrend line will trigger losses to the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low”.