EUR/USD expected to test 1.1908 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, sees the likeliness that spot could test 1.1908.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD last week’s high of 1.2092 was accompanied by a large divergence of the daily RSI. We look for a slide back to the uptrend at 1.1908, we have no strong opinion of whether this will hold or nor but we suspect not, and this guards the 5 month uptrend at 1.1775. While this second uptrend holds we remain unable to rule out an extension to the 50% retracement from the move down from the 2014 high at 1.2168 and the 1.2372 200 month ma, but that is expected to hold”.

“Failure at the five month uptrend line will negate the up move and trigger losses to the mid-June high at 1.1296 and the more important 1.1110 end of May low”.