UK: Unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged in July - TDS

Analysts at TDS are in line with consensus in looking for the UK unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% in July, although they think that the risks lie to the downside and see a reasonably high probability of a 4.3% reading instead.

Key Quotes

“For wage growth we look for a small acceleration in the headline from 2.1% to 2.4% y/y (mkt 2.3%) as a very soft April reading falls out of the 3m MA, with underlying private sector regular pay also picking up a touch, from 2.3% to 2.4% y/y.”