US: Advance goods trade balance and Q2 GDP in focus - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US advance estimate of the August goods trade balance to show a widening deficit to $66.1bn, from $63.9bn in July.

Key Quotes

“Goods exports picked up notably in Q2, but the July trade report indicates that goods exports fell 0.3% m-o-m and imports fell 0.2%. Based on inbound container data at major US ports, we expect the decline in goods exports continued in August. Goods imports, on the other hand, likely rebounded, contributing to a wider goods trade gap.” 

“Q2 GDP, third estimate: In the final estimate of Q2 GDP, we expect the BEA to raise its estimate by 0.2pp to 3.2% q-o-q saar, from 3.0%. The Quarterly Services Survey for Q2 suggests that personal consumption expenditure (PCE) could be revised up in the final estimate, while it implies somewhat weaker investment in intellectual property. In addition, backward revisions to core retail sales were negative to our tracking model and will likely offset some of the positive impact from the inclusion of the Quarterly Services Survey. The revisions to inventories were not substantial, implying that the contribution from inventories to topline real GDP growth will remain weak, which as reported at a meager 0.02pp in the BEAs second estimate.”