US: FOMC minutes, CPI and retail sales - Danske Bank

In the US, according to analysts from Danske Bank, the most important data releases next week will be CPI and CPI core figures for September and also the minutes of the September FOMC meeting.

Key Quotes: 

“In the US, the most important data release next week will be CPI and CPI core figures for September, released on Friday. We estimate CPI core increased 0.2% m/m (1.8% y/y against 1.7% y/y in August), which is a bit more than the trend seen over the past half year. If this holds, we expect headline CPI to come out at 0.6% m/m (2.3% y/y against 1.9% y/y in August). However, this is a lot stronger than normal, which is due to a strong contribution from energy prices coming from increases in gasoline prices (caused in part by the increasing oil price, but also due to the hurricanes hitting in late August/early September). In summary, if our estimates turn out right, then both CPI and CPI core will be close to/above the 2% target, but note that the Fed targets PCE inflation (still significantly below target) and hence it is still struggling with low inflation.”

“Friday also brings retail sales control group figures for September. August saw a decline of 0.2% m/m and we estimate some of this was reversed in September. Hence, we estimate retail sales control group increased 0.4% m/m.”

“On Tuesday and Friday, NFIB small business optimism for September is due out and University of Michigan consumer confidence for October, respectively. Both indicators remain at very high levels and we do not expect any significant changes.”

“Note also that the minutes from the FOMC meeting on 19-20 September is due for release on Wednesday. We will look out for any comments about discussions regarding whether the FOMC members have a target level in mind for when to stop QT. However, we do not expect them to reveal much about this as they are likely to want to keep it an open question in order to preserve their flexibility to adjust QT as they move along. Also note that the ‘dot’ plot did not change much at the last FOMC meeting, which indicates that there were no major changes in personal attitudes towards the conduction of monetary policy.”