Japan: Polls point to a comfortable lead for Abe, but still a large number of undecided voters- HSBC

Analysts at HSBC note that the Japanese opinion polls suggest the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito are likely to secure at least a stable majority and potentially preserve their super majority of two-thirds, if the LDP wins tightly contested constituencies. However, surveys reveal a high number of undecided voters, they further adds. 

Key Quotes

“Before the lower house was dissolved, the LDP held 287 seats and Komeito 35, giving them a super majority (i.e. two-thirds of the total) out of a total 475 seats. Although PM Abe has said his target is to secure a simple majority with Komeito, and that he will step down if the coalition fails to do this, a key goal for the LDP is to win a two-thirds majority in the lower house. This will allow it to initiate a bill to make changes to the constitutional amendment, which also requires a majority vote in a national referendum. The coalition also holds a super majority in the upper house, with LDP holding 125 seats and Komeito 49 out of a total of 242.” 

“Separate surveys from Kyodo, Sankei, and Nikkei have the LDP and Komeito winning 294-325 seats out of a total of 465. This implies the LDP and coalition would secure an absolute stable majority of 261 seats, which would allow the ruling party to chair and have an absolute majority in every standing committee of the lower house. Meanwhile, according to the surveys, Tokyo Governor Koike's PoH may win around 57-69 seats, which would make it the main opposition party. Such a result would likely be something of a disappointment for the new party, given the high expectations when the PoH was founded a couple weeks ago. The slowing in momentum implied by the polls could reflect the split with the CDP.”