AUD/USD: steady at 0.7850, looking ahead to key jobs

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7843, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7848 and low at 0.7843.

RBA Minutes: Limited new information and no surprises – RBC CM

In a recovery, AUD/USD moved back from 0.7818 lows to 0.7849 in NY while copper consolidated after yesterday's spike on a better macro outlook. The RBA minutes were the main focus yesterday where the detail arrived was as expected - inflation remains subdued amid AUD strength with some gentle jawboning of the currency; AUD/USD drifted down to 0.7835 (lining up with the 38.2 of the 0.7733/0.7898 move) and then recovered back to 0.7960 before the sell-off to 0.7818. Buyers emerged and NY handed over to Asia at 0.7844.

Meanwhile, the day ahead is looking rather uneventful, so eyes stay with Australian September jobs data due Thursday where employment is forecasted to be at +15k. We do, however, have September's Westpac-MI Leading Index that was last at -0.19%. "The index has swung sharply in recent months from well above trend to back below trend," explained analysts at Westpac. 

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AUD/USD 1 day: 

Analysts at Westpac explained that AUD/USD is expected to continue consolidating in a 0.7800-0.7900 range if the USD does likewise.

AUD/USD 1-3 month:

Further out, the analysts explained that iIf the RBA remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end. (5 Oct)

AUD/USD levels

"The 4 hours chart indicates that the risk is towards the downside, as the price is developing below its 200 EMA, which converges with the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, and below the 20 SMA," explained Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, adding, "technical indicators in the same chart have retreated all the way down towards their mid-lines, but partially lost downward strength around them, failing at this point to confirm further slides ahead. The next Fibonacci support comes around 0.7815 the level to break to confirm additional declines ahead towards the 0.7770 region."