Brexit: The cursor moves to “hard” again - Natixis

"As expected, the fifth round of negotiations on Brexit did not end up with enough progress on the divorce bill, the situation of expatriates and the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland," note Natixis analysts.

Key quotes:

"The European summit which will be held next week should recognize this failure. There were many obstacles: 1/ the more and more pernicious political situation in the United Kingdom, and the lack of a common vision in the government. The hypothesis of a hard Brexit is now being explicitly mentioned in official documents, and is mobilizing human and financial resources; 2/ the United Kingdom and the EU27 do not have the same calendar (the United Kingdom wants to negotiate the trade agreement and the transition period first)."

"This seriously complicates the BoE’s work: its monetary policy is both data-dependent and Brexit-dependent. On November 2, it will face a conflict between its inflation and growth objectives."