US: New home sales likely to have fallen slightly by 0.9% in September - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US new home sales to have fallen slightly by 0.9% m-o-m to 555k in September, reflecting disruptions to sales activity brought by Hurricane Irma.

Key Quotes

“Moreover, Hurricane Harvey affected the Census Bureau’s data collection in the South in August. As delayed data become available, August sales estimates could be revised in the September report. Incorporating the negative impact from the recent hurricanes, it appears likely that residential investment will subtract from real GDP growth in Q3.”

“Looking ahead, recovery work after the recent storms could boost construction modestly in the South, which will likely be smoothed out over next couple of quarters. However, shortages of skilled labor and of developable lots could continue to weigh on inventory growth, constraining sales.”