Eurozone: Key data for next week - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank, expect that the preliminary Q3 GDP for the Eurozone to show a continued recovery, albeit with slightly lower growth than in Q2 while they consider that inflation should have ticked down to 1.4% y/y in October. 

Key Quotes: 

“In the euro area, the preliminary GDP figures for Q3 are due for release on Tuesday. We estimate quarterly growth of 0.5% in Q3, falling slightly from Q2 growth, which was estimated at 0.7%. We estimate slightly lower growth in Q3 than Q2, as activity indicators such as PMIs have been lower throughout Q3 but remain at high levels and signal robustness for the euro area recovery.”

“On Tuesday, the euro area HICP figures for October will also be released. We expect headline inflation to tick down to 1.4% y/y in October from 1.5% in September, due mainly to energy price base effects. Headline inflation developments still seem to be driven largely by energy price inflation. Since the beginning of 2017, energy price inflation has been declining, driving headline inflation from the peak of 2.0% in February to 1.5% in September. Core inflation is expected to remain at 1.1% y/y in October. Despite a moderate pickup in wage growth and service price inflation since June 2016, we still see no upward trend in core inflation, which we expect to stay just above 1% in coming months. Note that the German inflation figures are due for release on Monday.”