USD/JPY initial test expected around 111.74/64 – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair’s decline should see initial contention in the 111.74/64 band.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is approaching 111.74, the 200 day ma and the top of the daily cloud at 111.64 and the 111.65 mid October low. We would allow for this to hold the initial test and prompt a rebound. While above here, scope will remain for recovery to 114.58 longer term. This is the break point to the 118.60/66 January high”.

“However we note the intraday Elliott wave count is negative and continues to indicate rallies will fail circa 113.10. They indicate that we should allow for losses to 109.00”.

“The 111.65 mid October low and 111.64 cloud guard the 109.55 mid-September low and in turn this support guards the 108.81/13 April and June lows as well as the September low at 107.32”.