5 Mar 2014
Flash: Australia Q4 GDP the main focus - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, notes that the bank's expectations for the Australian Q4 GDP remain slightly above 0.7% consensus.
Key Quotes
"After the slightly disappointing net exports data yesterday Westpac revised down its forecast for Australia’s Q4 GDP but remains slightly above 0.7% consensus, looking for 0.8% q/q, 2.7% y/y."
"Growth looks to be very lopsided, with strong contributions expected from household consumption (around 0.7ppt), net exports 0.65ppt and a somewhat surprising 0.3ppt from public spending."
"On the weak side, business investment should show a sharp decline, while housing construction looks to be reported as about flat, in stark contrast to the surge in building approvals which continued in Jan."
"A headline 0.8% rise would only provide mild support to AUD, say 20 pips, but there is always considerable scope for surprise in the report, particularly on consumption, where the retail trade survey offers only limited guidance. Indeed the q/q change in GDP has printed in line with consensus only once in the past 4 years."
Key Quotes
"After the slightly disappointing net exports data yesterday Westpac revised down its forecast for Australia’s Q4 GDP but remains slightly above 0.7% consensus, looking for 0.8% q/q, 2.7% y/y."
"Growth looks to be very lopsided, with strong contributions expected from household consumption (around 0.7ppt), net exports 0.65ppt and a somewhat surprising 0.3ppt from public spending."
"On the weak side, business investment should show a sharp decline, while housing construction looks to be reported as about flat, in stark contrast to the surge in building approvals which continued in Jan."
"A headline 0.8% rise would only provide mild support to AUD, say 20 pips, but there is always considerable scope for surprise in the report, particularly on consumption, where the retail trade survey offers only limited guidance. Indeed the q/q change in GDP has printed in line with consensus only once in the past 4 years."