South Africa: Changing odds as Ramaphosa rises to 60%, others drop - TDS

Court orders banning ANC delegates in Zuma’s stronghold provinces from voting in the ANC Elective Conference, and the rejection by the ANC of a new system of consecutive votes for the Top Six within the Conference, have suddenly increased the chances of a Ramaphosa victory vs NDZ or Unity Candidate, points out the research team at TDS.

Key Quotes

“We have reassessed the probability of a market-friendly scenario (Ramaphosa’s odds now at 60%), but see the current rally of ZAR and SAGB as resulting in a greater risk of selloff in the event of a less likely NDZ win.”

“ZAR positive scenarios in the coming 3-4 months now have a 38% likelihood vs 62% of ZAR negative scenarios. However, tail risks have shrunk and we see the odds of a 5%+ ZAR appreciation at 33% vs 19% of a depreciation in excess of 7%. We continue to be neutrally positioned into the ANC Elective Conference starting on 16 December.”