UK and EU trade deal coming up by spring? - ING

Now that some of the more thorny issues of the Brexit process are resolved, PM May will reportedly sit down with her cabinet over the coming weeks to try to agree on a "model" for the trading relationship by the spring to give businesses a better understanding of the direction of travel, explains the research team at ING.

Key Quotes 

“After that, the UK government’s official position is that it expects to strike a trade agreement before exiting in March 2019.” 

“But taking off three to four months for ratification leaves less than a year to agree on a deal, which is a very short timeframe. So it’s possible that at least some elements of the talks will continue into the transition period. One consequence of this is that, without a concrete idea of what trading environment the UK will actually be transitioning into in 2021 or 2022, companies are likely to remain cautious when it comes to longer-term investment even after a transition is announced. Until details emerge, this effectively means the 'cliff edge' risk is still present, albeit two or three years later. It's worth remembering too that, in the EU's words, "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".”