US week ahead: inflation and retail sales - Danske Bank

Next week in the US, inflation and retail sales data will be released. Analysts from Danske Bank estimate that the core CPI inflation stood at 1.7 in December.

Key Quotes: 

“In the US, CPI figures for December are due for release on Friday. The current trend growth in core CPI is around 0.2% m/m and we estimate this was the level of growth in December (implying 1.7% y/y in December versus 1.7% y/y in November). We expect headline inflation to come in at a ‘small’ 0.2% m/m too, as gasoline prices were more or less unchanged in December (in seasonally adjusted terms), despite higher oil prices in December. This would imply that the annual headline inflation rate was 2.1% y/y (versus 2.2% y/y in November). Friday also brings retail salesfigures for December.”

Retail sales growth trended higher in the second half of 2017 and we expect the strong growth in retail sales to continue.”

“The coming week also brings several speeches by FOMC members and we intend to pay particular attention to any further comments about the likelihood of another hike as soon as March and a possible shift to price level targeting.”