When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK Economic Data Overview

The UK industrial production and trade balance data for the month of December are scheduled for release at 0930 GMT in the European session ahead.

The manufacturing production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to ease to 0.3% on monthly basis in Dec, against a 0.4% expansion seen in Nov. Meanwhile, the total industrial production is expected to show a 09% decrease m/m in Dec, as compared to a 0.4% reading booked previously.

On an annualized basis, the industrial production for Dec is expected to decelerate to 0.3% versus 2.5% previous, while the manufacturing output figures are seen arriving at 1.2% in the reported month versus 3.5% last.

Separately, the UK goods trade balance will be reported and is expected to come in at GBP -11.60 billion in Nov vs. GBP -12.23 billion last.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 35 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The UK releases are likely to be closely eyed by the GBP markets, especially after last week’s poor run of PMI reports and yesterday’s hawkish BOE stance.

Better-than-expected data could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, which could drive the rate back above the 1.40 handle, above which the doors open up for a test of post-BOE highs of 1.4065. However, GBP/USD could drop back towards the 1.3900 key support should the data disappoint.

Key notes

UK manufacturing production to decline by -0.2% - TDS

GBP/USD catches a bid ahead of European markets, UK data

About the UK manufacturing production and trade balance

The Manufacturing Production released by the Office for National Statistics(ONS) measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.