NAFTA and the US dollar, what if...? - Capital Economics

Analysts at Capital Economics explained that there are forces that could push the dollar higher again.

Key Quotes:

"We may be underestimating the impact of the deficit-financed stimulus on economic growth further ahead. But the biggest immediate risk is if President Trump were to follow through on his protectionist threats.

The announcement on steel tariffs has not had much effect, but if the US were to withdraw from NAFTA, that would cause the dollar to surge against the peso and Canadian dollar. The resulting hit to growth and inflation may even be large enough to prompt the Fed to hold off raising rates."