Commodity currencies: CAD vulnerable? - BBH

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the market tried three times to push the US dollar above CAD1.30, and the failure leaves the market vulnerable.

Key Quotes:

"The exemption granted Canada from the newest US tariffs, as well as the strength of its biggest export market, helped the Canadian dollar recover ahead of the weekend. The greenback closed on its lows a little ahead of CAD1.28, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the last leg up that began in the middle of last month. Below there is the 50% retracement and the 20-day moving average around CAD1.2725. The technical indicators line up well and are the clearest among the currencies that the Canadian dollar will likely appreciate in the near-term against the US dollar. "

"After forging a shelf in the $0.7760-$0.7770 area, the Australian dollar broke higher ahead of the weekend. It finished above its 20-day moving average (~$0.7840) for the first time in over a month. There are a number of technical levels found between $0.7850 and $0.7900. "

"Technical indicators suggest a robust challenge of the resistance should be expected. April WTI has a base at $60 now and is poised to test the $63-$64 a barrel area. The RSI and MACD are more supportive than the Slow Stochastic. The close was strong just above $62 and above the five and 20-day moving averages (~$61.50 and $61.70)."