US: Q1 GDP appears to have slowed considerably - BBH

The US reports its first look at Q1 GDP and it appears to have slowed considerably, suggests the research team at BBH.  

Key Quotes

“The latest estimate for Q4 17 GDP put it at a 2.9% annualized pace.  The market is expecting 1.8%-2.0%.  The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has it at the upper end of the market range, while the New York Fed's GDP tracker sees it unchanged at 2.9%.  As goes the US consumer, so goes the economy.  Consumption rose at an annualized pace of 4% in Q4 18 and looks to have slowed to less than 1.5%, which would make it the slowest since Q2 13.”

“We look for better growth in Q2 and continue to expect the Federal Reserve to look past the softness. The impact of the fiscal stimulus is expected to lift growth and prices.  Bloomberg's model still inexplicably sees a nearly 30% chance of a Fed hike next month.  The CME's model and our own work show practically no chance.”