24 Mar 2014
EMEA EM Express: Ukraine withdraws forces from Crimea in fear of Russian aggression
FXStreet (Łódź) - The situation in Ukraine remains tense at the beginning of the week, with Russian troops gathering at the country's eastern border and taking over over another Ukrainian naval base in Crimea.
The Ukrainian defense ministry has received an order from acting President Oleksandr Turchynov today to withdraw forces from Crimea, following the capturing of a Ukrainian naval base in Feodosia by Russian troops.
"The Cabinet of Ministers was instructed to ensure the accommodation of families of servicemen, and all those who are now forced to leave their homes under pressure and aggression of the occupying forces of the Russian army," Turchynov said.
Arriving in Amsterdam ahead of the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, US president Barack Obama told reporters that the US stands firm in its support for Ukraine. “If Russia continues to escalate the situation, we need to be prepared to impose a greater cost," he said in an interview.
The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team suggest that the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are “the strongest since the end of the Cold War,” and could damage its economy considerably.
“There may be a multiplier effect of sorts in terms of the sanctions as businesses may choose to refrain from dealing with Russian enterprises, especially state-owned or directed, as the case may be, for fear of additional sanctions,” they add.
Also on Monday the ruble entered into circulation in Crimea, although the majority of businesses still use the Ukrainian hryvnia. The hryvina will continue being accepted until the beginning 2016.
Technicals
The Russian ruble rose to 42.1832 against Bank Rossii’s dollar-euro basket. Last week the currency strengthened 1.4%. USD/RUB fell by 0.38% to 36.10.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 58.6479 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 2692 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 3649 pips.
The Turkish lira dropped sharply following Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's order to block Twitter on Friday in an attempt to halt a corruption scandal, nine days before local elections.
The currency fell 0.7% before trading 0.4 percent weaker at 2.2387 against the dollar during morning trading in Istanbul.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/TRY was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 54.4181 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 158 pips, with ATR (14) at 256 pips.
David Simmonds,Senior FX Strategist at RBS who suggests a long USD/TRY position adds that “the important caveat on the short TRY side is Turkey local elections at the end of next week where EM Research colleague Abbas Ameli-Renani assigns a 75% probability to a 'non-negative' outcome for the Lira.”
The Ukrainian defense ministry has received an order from acting President Oleksandr Turchynov today to withdraw forces from Crimea, following the capturing of a Ukrainian naval base in Feodosia by Russian troops.
"The Cabinet of Ministers was instructed to ensure the accommodation of families of servicemen, and all those who are now forced to leave their homes under pressure and aggression of the occupying forces of the Russian army," Turchynov said.
Arriving in Amsterdam ahead of the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague, US president Barack Obama told reporters that the US stands firm in its support for Ukraine. “If Russia continues to escalate the situation, we need to be prepared to impose a greater cost," he said in an interview.
The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team suggest that the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are “the strongest since the end of the Cold War,” and could damage its economy considerably.
“There may be a multiplier effect of sorts in terms of the sanctions as businesses may choose to refrain from dealing with Russian enterprises, especially state-owned or directed, as the case may be, for fear of additional sanctions,” they add.
Also on Monday the ruble entered into circulation in Crimea, although the majority of businesses still use the Ukrainian hryvnia. The hryvina will continue being accepted until the beginning 2016.
Technicals
The Russian ruble rose to 42.1832 against Bank Rossii’s dollar-euro basket. Last week the currency strengthened 1.4%. USD/RUB fell by 0.38% to 36.10.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 58.6479 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 2692 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 3649 pips.
The Turkish lira dropped sharply following Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's order to block Twitter on Friday in an attempt to halt a corruption scandal, nine days before local elections.
The currency fell 0.7% before trading 0.4 percent weaker at 2.2387 against the dollar during morning trading in Istanbul.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/TRY was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 54.4181 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 158 pips, with ATR (14) at 256 pips.
David Simmonds,Senior FX Strategist at RBS who suggests a long USD/TRY position adds that “the important caveat on the short TRY side is Turkey local elections at the end of next week where EM Research colleague Abbas Ameli-Renani assigns a 75% probability to a 'non-negative' outcome for the Lira.”