25 Mar 2014
RMB weakness to continue near term - Nomura survey
FXStreet (Bali) - Based on a Nomura RMB survey held from 19 to 21 March, Research Analysts highlight RMB expectations over the next three months.
Key Quotes
"Over the next three months, 67% of respondents expect RMB weakness to continue, with conviction higher among the global real money and the corporate community. The main rationale for no appreciation included PBoC FX intervention and broad economic weakness. Our survey also showed that 85% of respondents expect the PBoC to continue its sporadic FX intervention policy through the year."
"Out of the 33% expecting RMB appreciation in the next three months (Figure 1), the majority – mostly Asia banks, and European and North America (NA) hedge funds – believed Chinese authorities had achieved their objective in reducing speculative flow."
"Despite the 67%/33% split in RMB depreciation/appreciation expectations in the next three months, Asia banks and European and NA hedge funds were almost evenly split over the RMB outlook in this period."
Key Quotes
"Over the next three months, 67% of respondents expect RMB weakness to continue, with conviction higher among the global real money and the corporate community. The main rationale for no appreciation included PBoC FX intervention and broad economic weakness. Our survey also showed that 85% of respondents expect the PBoC to continue its sporadic FX intervention policy through the year."
"Out of the 33% expecting RMB appreciation in the next three months (Figure 1), the majority – mostly Asia banks, and European and North America (NA) hedge funds – believed Chinese authorities had achieved their objective in reducing speculative flow."
"Despite the 67%/33% split in RMB depreciation/appreciation expectations in the next three months, Asia banks and European and NA hedge funds were almost evenly split over the RMB outlook in this period."