US: ISM non-manufacturing index likely to decline 0.3pp in July - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a 0.3pp decline in the US July ISM non-manufacturing index to a reading of 58.8, consistent with steady non-manufacturer business activity albeit with some downside risks from trade.

Key Quotes

“Given that the non-manufacturer index includes agricultural industries, some decline following increased headlines regarding retaliatory tariffs against US farmers could be expected. However, steady growth in the non-manufacturing sector, helped by firm consumer fundamentals, should keep non-manufacturer sentiment elevated to start off Q3.”