US: Focus on JOLTS job opening and consumer credit data – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that in the US, job openings remain near record levels this year as labor demand firms in an economy growing well-above potential.

Key Quotes

“The job openings rate, at 4.3%, sits just 0.1pp below its historical high. In May, the quits rate was up 0.1pp to 2.4%, the highest since April 2001, as workers feel emboldened to leave their current employer for other opportunities in a strong labor market. However, labor market turnover, the sum of hires and separations divided by two times the employment level, remains subdued relative to previous cyclical peaks, indicating that the labor market remains less fluid.”

“Consumer credit: Consumer credit increased strongly by $24.6bn in May, the most since November 2017. The gain was driven by a sharp $9.8bn increase in revolving credit. This sharp increase is unlikely to persist in coming months. However, we believe consumer fundamentals will likely firm and support steady expansion in consumer credit. That said, buying plans in the July Conference Board’s consumer survey deteriorated somewhat, which may be a reflection of some moderation of consumers’ assessment of future economic conditions in recent months.”