Poland: Strong production won’t prevent a GDP slowdown - ING

Despite solid industrial activity in July, Poland’s GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 5%YoY in the third quarter this year, according to Jakub Rybacki, Economist at ING.

Key Quotes

“Polish industrial production accelerated from 6.8% to 10.3% year on year in July, in line with the market consensus of 10.0%YoY. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the dynamics accelerated from 6.6% to 7.8%YoY.”

“Despite the solid readings in July, GDP is unlikely to maintain the growth visible in previous quarters.”

“We expect 3Q18 GDP to decelerate from 5.1% to 4.6%YoY due to less favourable statistical effects.”