US: Chicago PMI likely to decline to 63.5 in August - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a 2.0pp decline in Chicago PMI to 63.5 in August.

Key Quotes

“With serious trade concerns, manufacturers appear mixed on their business outlook. While the Philly Fed survey general business conditions index deteriorated sharply in August, the Empire State survey index improved to the highest level in 2018.”

“Despite sending conflicting signals, both surveys indicated that businesses expressed acute concerns over increased uncertainty from trade disputes. While the economic momentum continues to be strong, we expect elevated trade uncertainty to weigh on Chicago PMI.”