FOMC nears neutral, EM yield curve will limit tightening - ANZ

The ANZ Global Lead Index (GLI) bounced modestly in August largely owing to surprisingly strong US manufacturing activity, notes the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“We anticipate this will prove temporary and continue to expect a moderation in global industrial activity.”

“Our trade lead indicators appear to be basing, but it’s too early to call a bottom. Trade tensions remain elevated and more protective measures from the US administration are in train.”

“Despite Fed hikes, Fed balance sheet unwind, rising EM volatility, and heightened global trade and political uncertainty US financial conditions have eased recently.”

“Alongside solid growth the FOMC looks set to hike in September. The key question is how the dot plot takes shape in coming meetings with the Fed closing in on normal.”