ECB to confirm its asset purchase taper to €15bn/month in Q4 - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities expect the ECB’s Governing Council to confirm its asset purchase taper to €15bn/month in Q4, but to say a full QE halt from December remains conditional on inflation data and their forecast.

Key Quotes

“Other guidance to remain unchanged.”

“Fresh forecasts are released.”

“We see growth downgraded slightly on the back of soft data, but inflation forecasts are unchanged. Leaks today suggest growth risks could be tilted to the downside.”

“FX: A still-cautious ECB implies moderate downside in EURUSD but solid support should emerge at 1.1525. US CPI may be the bigger driver, particularly on a higher print.”