11 Apr 2014
Latin America EM Express: Peru's central bank on hold in April
FXStreet (Łódź) - As expected, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, which held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4% for the fifth running month, on prospects of a pickup in economic growth and a slowdown in inflation in the upcoming months.
Still, the central banks board of directors said that growth had likely slowed down in the first half of 2014.
According to the official statement: "Indicators of productive activity and expectation surveys indicate dynamic economic activity in the first half of this year, although at a rate slower than expected."
In March Peruvian CPI stood at 3.38%, slightly above the central bank's 1-3% target, and the board of directors suggested on Thursday that it should fall further as supply shocks subside. Last week the central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.4-2.5% from 2%.
Economic data
The volume of production of Mexican industries such as factories and manufacturing has risen by 0.3% month-on-month in February, following a 0.5% increase in January, data released on Friday showed. Analysts expected more growth of 0.5%.
On an annual basis Industrial Production climbed 0.7%, slightly down from +0.8% and below expectations of a 1.1% increase.
Technicals
USD/BRL jumped by 0.62% to 2.2030. On Thursday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI sat at 22 at the last close, and has reached 49 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 520 pips, with ATR (14) at 301 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3071, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2674.
The USD/MXN climbed 0.06% to 13.0702. Yesterday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 44 at the last close, and has headed higher to 54 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 839 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 935 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was neutral at 13.0542.
Still, the central banks board of directors said that growth had likely slowed down in the first half of 2014.
According to the official statement: "Indicators of productive activity and expectation surveys indicate dynamic economic activity in the first half of this year, although at a rate slower than expected."
In March Peruvian CPI stood at 3.38%, slightly above the central bank's 1-3% target, and the board of directors suggested on Thursday that it should fall further as supply shocks subside. Last week the central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.4-2.5% from 2%.
Economic data
The volume of production of Mexican industries such as factories and manufacturing has risen by 0.3% month-on-month in February, following a 0.5% increase in January, data released on Friday showed. Analysts expected more growth of 0.5%.
On an annual basis Industrial Production climbed 0.7%, slightly down from +0.8% and below expectations of a 1.1% increase.
Technicals
USD/BRL jumped by 0.62% to 2.2030. On Thursday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI sat at 22 at the last close, and has reached 49 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 520 pips, with ATR (14) at 301 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3071, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2674.
The USD/MXN climbed 0.06% to 13.0702. Yesterday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 44 at the last close, and has headed higher to 54 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 839 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 935 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was neutral at 13.0542.