Thailand: Manufacturing points to GDP slowdown - ING

According to Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, Thailand’s disappointing manufacturing data for August foreshadows a further slowdown in the country’s GDP growth in the current quarter.

Key Quotes

“The manufacturing index rose by only 0.7% year-on-year in August, undershooting the consensus estimate of 3.1% growth. This is the slowest rate of growth since April 2017.”

“Meanwhile, July growth was revised up to 4.9% from the initial estimate of 4.6%. Manufacturing capacity utilisation also dipped to 65.9% in August from 66.9% in July (revised from 67.2% initial estimate), the lowest since last November.”

“Assuming a monthly manufacturing change in September at the average rate over the last three years, the 3Q18 growth will see a slowdown to 2.8% from 3.7% in 2Q. Where manufacturing goes GDP follows. We estimate that the 3Q GDP slowdown to 4.1% from 4.6% in 2Q remains on track.”