When are the Eurozone flash CPIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone flash CPIs estimate overview

Eurostat will publish the Eurozone's inflation first estimate for September at 09.00 GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to tick higher to 2.1% on a yearly basis while the core figures are also seen a tad firmer at 1.1% in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

According to FXStreet’s Analysts Yohay Elam, “ if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.41 or higher(2.15 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 13  pips in the first 15 minutes and 64 pips in the following 4 hours. 1.1720 was a separator of ranges in late September. 1.1750 served as a quadruple top in July and remains relevant as resistance.”

“If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -2.04 or less(2.01 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go down reaching a range of 19 pips in the first 15 minutes and 61 pips in the following 4 hours,” Yohay adds.

Key Notes

Euro area inflation to gain to 2.1% y/y for headline - TDS

Eurozone: September inflation to slow further to 2.01% y/y – Danske Bank

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Set-up points to an extension of the declining trend

About Eurozone flash CPIs estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).