UK political polls are likely to swing relatively wildly - Westpac

According to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, UK political polls are likely to swing relatively wildly as opinion gyrates after this week’s Labour and then next week’s Conservative annual party conferences.

Key Quotes

“Labour clearly hope to make political hay over the inability of May’s torn Cabinet and minority gov’t to form an acceptable plan for Brexit that can placate internal Tory factions, let alone the EU who flatly rejected May’s Chequers plan.”

“Labour may have opened prospects for a 2nd referendum on Brexit, but this overlooks that Labour is also torn over EU membership. Labour’s real hope is for a flash election and this is why post-conference opinion is of such interest.”

“Given the latest outlines of Labour’s policy, a victory might suggest closer ties to EU, but it would also involve a draconian shift to socialism that would further undermine confidence and GBP.”

“In the interim, May appears likely to cling on. Beyond politics, measures of uncertainty and business sentiment will likely impact GBP as will any shift in Brexit negotiations.”

“The polarisation of possible outcomes means that GBP rebounds are still likely to be capped within the 1.27-1.35 range.”