Canada: Jobs data to attract the most attention - NBF

According to analysts at the National Bank of Canada, next week, the key economic report will be on Friday with job market numbers. 

Key Quotes:

“The LFS has painted a rather morose picture of the Canadian labour market lately. Indeed, the reported 51.6K jobs lost in August brought this year’s cumulative employment change back into negative territory at -14.6K. Such a poor number is hard to reconcile with the rather upbeat economic data published recently. Adding to the confusion, the SEPH survey, a poll of establishments, continues to show strong job gains this year (+203K). There’s a limit to the extent to which the SEPH and the LFS can diverge. After all, the two surveys are supposed to give an assessment of the same labour market.”

“We expect a good showing for the LFS in September (+25K), one that would at least bring total job creation in 2018 back into positive territory. If that scenario unfolds, the unemployment rate could stay put at 6.0%.”

“We’ll also get data on August’s merchandise trade balance. Both energy and non-energy exports may have shrunk in the month, hampered by lower prices. The resulting negative impact on the overall trade balance may have been compounded by a rebound of imports following a weak print in July. All told, the Canadian goods trade deficit could have widened to C$1.5 billion.”

“Markit’s manufacturing PMI for September will also be released this week.”