China: Real GDP growth to slow to 6.4% in Q3 - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect China’s real GDP growth to slow to 6.4% y-o-y in Q3 from 6.7% in Q2, reflecting the negative impact from weakening domestic demand and rising trade protectionism.

Key Quotes

“IP growth is likely to slow in September, owing to a high base last year and weaker momentum, investment growth will likely moderate further and consumption growth may resume its downtrend because of high household debt. Both export and import growth may slow further owing to rising trade protectionism and uncertainty over demand.”

“We expect CPI and PPI inflation to moderate in September, reflecting contained inflationary pressures. M2 growth may remain unchanged from August, in line with largely stable interbank interest rates, and we expect new RMB loans and aggregate financing to rise seasonally in September.”

“Due to the PBoC’s favourable credit policies, corporate bond issuance is likely to remain solid, and the pace of shrinkage in shadow banking financing is likely to slow in September. Policy easing and stimulus will kick in but with a lag, and we expect things to get worse before improving.”