Turkey: Headline inflation likely to move higher to 21.1% - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the (Bloomberg) consensus is looking for Turkey’s headline inflation to move higher to 21.1% y/y from a prior 17.9%.

Key Quotes

“Pass-through from prior TRY weakness is the main driver of higher inflation, but precisely quantifying this given the size and rapidity of USDTRY moves is difficult. Hence, the range of estimates from the Bloomberg survey is wide - from 19.2% to 22.4%.”

“Our own models can, depending on the assumptions used, generate estimates ranging from 20.0% to 22.0% Core inflation is expected to move up to 19.3% Y/Y from a prior 17.2%.”