UK: Unemployment rate likely to rise to 4.1% - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the UK’s labour statistics for the three-months ending August are released today and are going to be the key economic release for the day.

Key Quotes

“We expect the unemployment rate to rise just enough for it to round up a tick to 4.1% (a 4.0% print wouldn't shock), while headline wage growth remains unchanged at 2.6% 3m/y. However, some of those wage gains will be driven by bonuses, with ex-bonus wage growth expected at 2.7% 3m/y (mkt: 2.9%) and core private sector regular pay growth moving down a tick to 2.9% 3m/y. None of today's data should alter the Bank of England's perception of a relatively tight labour market.”