Brexit: Entering overtime - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that the 18-19 October EU summit, the original deadline of the EU for reaching a Brexit deal with the UK has been missed, while the UK brought the talks to a stand-still on 14 October.

Key Quotes

“The EU will not convene in November to discuss Brexit due to lack of progress on the Irish border conundrum.”

“A deal between the EU and the UK now seems likely at the 13-14 December EU summit.”

“Domestic politics have flared up in tensions again and the cumbersome dynamics will make it challenging for Prime Minister (PM) May to get an eventual deal through the UK Parliament.”

“We still regard a last minute deal as the most likely outcome, but due to the recent turn of events we now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as the base case.”