Thailand: Weak activity leads GDP forecast downgrade – ING

Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, notes that the Thailand’s manufacturing output contracted on a year-on-year basis in September, but the 2.6% fall was much steeper than the consensus median of only a 0.5% fall.

Key Quotes

“Coming on the heels of unexpectedly weak exports (-5.2% YoY), the steeper manufacturing fall isn’t a complete surprise.”

“A sharp slowdown in manufacturing in 3Q18 to 0.9% YoY from 3.7% in 2Q18, will have undoubtedly pulled GDP growth lower.”

“We now estimate 3Q18 GDP growth of 3.7%, slower than our earlier 4.1% estimate and down from 4.6% in 2Q (Bloomberg consensus 4.2%, data due on 19th November). This pushes our full-year growth forecast down to 4.2% from 4.3%. The fourth quarter is typically a strong growth quarter, which will soften the impact on full-year growth.”