Europe: Focus on economic projections - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that against the backdrop of rising uncertainty over the economic growth momentum in several important parts of the Eurozone, market participants may well have some extra attention for the European Commission’s economic projections today.

Key Quotes

“Over the last three years the maximum difference between the ECB’s and EC’s projections for headline inflation and real GDP for the Eurozone has been no more than 0.3%-points. The average deviation was only 0.1%-point! This is not such a surprise perhaps as these institutions often use the same (type) of DSGE models to come to their forecasts.”

“In other words, the EC’s projections today are likely to give some clues as to the direction in which the ECB’s December round projections may be heading, even though the September projections by the ECB for Eurozone GDP were already 0.1pp and 0.2pp lower than those of the EC’s Summer forecast. The ECB’s inflation projection is currently exactly equal to those of the EC.”