Norway: GDP likely to be on the weak side – Nordea Markets

Erik Johannes Bruce, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, forecasts Norway’s mainland GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (2.3% y/y) in Q3 up from 0.5% in Q2 and the consensus is also 0.6% while Norges Bank’s forecast is 0.7%.

Key Quotes

“We have monthly GDP figure until August and with growth in line with trend in September we will end up with quarterly growth at 0,5%.”

“Partly based on the monthly GDP figures, we see the risk of a significant downside surprise to the production figures to be small. However, the monthly national accounts figure points to a rather weak picture for mainland demand.”

“In sum, the GDP and the demand figures could end up slightly below Norges Bank’s forecast and argue for a somewhat lower rate path in December. However, we believe the Q3 employment figure out together with GDP figure to be at least as important to Norges Bank’s view.”