Russia: Modest GDP growth in Q3 – Nordea Markets

Tatiana Evdokimova, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that Russian economy grew by 1.3% y/y in Q3 2018 (slower than consensus estimate of 1.4% and 1.9% y/y posted in Q2).

Key Quotes

“The figure marked an economic slowdown once again showing a quite hesitant nature of the Russian economic growth. In January-September 2018 the economy has grown by 1.5%. For the official authorities’ forecast (growth by 1.8% in 2018) to come true economy should accelerate to +2.5% y/y in Q4, which doesn’t seem probable for the time being. We thus keep our GDP forecast unchanged at 1.6% in 2018 but signal some downside risks to this forecast.”

“The slowdown in Q3 was probably mostly caused by a softening of investment dynamics.”

“Leading indicators also point to a quite unstable nature of GDP growth.”