28 Apr 2014
IMM positioning still suggests lack of conviction - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - As the FX Team at TD Securities notes, the overall subdued activity in IMM positioning in the major currencies of late continued in the week through April 22nd.
Key Quotes
"It is reflecting lack of conviction that pervades the broader FX market at the moment."
"In all, a minor USD 0.4-billion increase in net USD shorts was registered on the week, as investors accumulated, on aggregate, a USD 5.4-billion net short, the largest such position the USD has seen since February last year."
"AUD registered the largest move on the week, with CTAs and speculative investors increasing net longs by 8.3k contracts to a total of +16.4k contracts. This is still a very modest net exposure but reflects the steady transition in positioning in the AUD from net short (-65k contracts at the end of January) to the largest net AUD long on the IMM in almost a year, in fact."
"Net GBP longs declined by 2.8k contracts in the latest week, ending at 47.8k net long contracts. Despite the decline, net GBP long positioning remains at its highest level since 2007."
"Net CHF longs were virtually unchanged on the week at +19.8k contracts. Ditto for net CAD shorts, which remained flat at –35.5k contracts."
"Short covering continued for the JPY, with total outstanding net shorts dropping from 68.7k contracts to 67.2k on the week. This extends the short covering the currency has been observing thus far this year; and brings net JPY shorts to roughly half as many contracts as of end-December 2013."
"Investors reduced their net long EUR position by a modest 1.9k contracts, yielding a net exposure of +25.8k contracts as of April 22nd. In turn, net NZD longs were increased by 0.3k contracts to +20.2k, and MXN saw minor short covering, ending at +53.5k net longs."
Key Quotes
"It is reflecting lack of conviction that pervades the broader FX market at the moment."
"In all, a minor USD 0.4-billion increase in net USD shorts was registered on the week, as investors accumulated, on aggregate, a USD 5.4-billion net short, the largest such position the USD has seen since February last year."
"AUD registered the largest move on the week, with CTAs and speculative investors increasing net longs by 8.3k contracts to a total of +16.4k contracts. This is still a very modest net exposure but reflects the steady transition in positioning in the AUD from net short (-65k contracts at the end of January) to the largest net AUD long on the IMM in almost a year, in fact."
"Net GBP longs declined by 2.8k contracts in the latest week, ending at 47.8k net long contracts. Despite the decline, net GBP long positioning remains at its highest level since 2007."
"Net CHF longs were virtually unchanged on the week at +19.8k contracts. Ditto for net CAD shorts, which remained flat at –35.5k contracts."
"Short covering continued for the JPY, with total outstanding net shorts dropping from 68.7k contracts to 67.2k on the week. This extends the short covering the currency has been observing thus far this year; and brings net JPY shorts to roughly half as many contracts as of end-December 2013."
"Investors reduced their net long EUR position by a modest 1.9k contracts, yielding a net exposure of +25.8k contracts as of April 22nd. In turn, net NZD longs were increased by 0.3k contracts to +20.2k, and MXN saw minor short covering, ending at +53.5k net longs."