29 Apr 2014
Plenty to trade on coming up - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - The day ahead is full and markets are lined up for a busy week ahead with the start of the next month. Strategists at Rabobank point to the next key events for tonight.
Key Quotes:
"Today starts with German GfK consumer confidence for May (which, as noted yesterday, is a report that is surely getting somewhat ahead of itself even given the German reputation for efficient data collection). The expectation is for an unchanged reading of 8.5. Still in Germany we then see April CPI data drop in state by state, with the national reading expected in the afternoon European time: prints of -0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY (up from just 0.9% in March) are the consensus, which if achieved may temporarily ease some lingering deflation concerns over the Eurozone".
"We also have the Eurozone M3 money supply figures for March in the European morning session, where the consensus is for a welcome increase (to 1.4% YoY and 1.3% YoY 3MMA, respectively) while still remaining low enough in absolute terms to be a cause for concern for the ECB. Additionally in Europe there are the Eurozone confidence surveys for various sectors including business, economic sentiment, industrial, and consumer: the latter is the most important for markets and all are expected to edge higher except for consumer confidence, where the consensus is an unchanged -8.7".
"Over the Channel there is the first estimate of Q1 UK GDP, which is seen at a brisk 0.9% QoQ and 3.2% YoY. There are still extremely valid reasons for concern over how sustainable a British recovery based on the overheating Southeast housing market and consumer spending (read borrowing?) rather than exports can ultimately prove to be, but for now at least the economy appears to be on much firmer footing than had been expected previously".
"In the US there are two main data points today. First up isS&P/CS house prices (see up 0.8% MoM and 13.0% YoY, down from 13.4% in January). Clearly the US housing recovery is still continuing, although with significant caveats to its traditional pre-recession pattern. In particular, there appears to be a predominance of cash buyers, who are pushing out traditional family mortgage purchasers (a pattern also true in London at least). An article on Bloomberg today quotes the chairman of major US landlord Equity Residential putting a interesting spin on this trend: he blames the delayed marriage age in the States (which has risen by all of 1.4 years for men and 1 year for women in a decade) for the slump in home ownership rates from a 2004 peak of 69.2% to 65.2%; of course, this shift to wedding 14 months later (and therefore not wanting to buy a house and being happy paying rent instead?) just happens to have coincided with the onset of the last US recession and a subsequent recovery driven by QE and sharply rising corporate profits rather than median wages".
"We then have US consumer confidence for April, which is expected to edge up slightly from 82.3 to 83.2, and is likely to be the day’s major market mover. The next scheduled FOMC meeting also starts".
Key Quotes:
"Today starts with German GfK consumer confidence for May (which, as noted yesterday, is a report that is surely getting somewhat ahead of itself even given the German reputation for efficient data collection). The expectation is for an unchanged reading of 8.5. Still in Germany we then see April CPI data drop in state by state, with the national reading expected in the afternoon European time: prints of -0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY (up from just 0.9% in March) are the consensus, which if achieved may temporarily ease some lingering deflation concerns over the Eurozone".
"We also have the Eurozone M3 money supply figures for March in the European morning session, where the consensus is for a welcome increase (to 1.4% YoY and 1.3% YoY 3MMA, respectively) while still remaining low enough in absolute terms to be a cause for concern for the ECB. Additionally in Europe there are the Eurozone confidence surveys for various sectors including business, economic sentiment, industrial, and consumer: the latter is the most important for markets and all are expected to edge higher except for consumer confidence, where the consensus is an unchanged -8.7".
"Over the Channel there is the first estimate of Q1 UK GDP, which is seen at a brisk 0.9% QoQ and 3.2% YoY. There are still extremely valid reasons for concern over how sustainable a British recovery based on the overheating Southeast housing market and consumer spending (read borrowing?) rather than exports can ultimately prove to be, but for now at least the economy appears to be on much firmer footing than had been expected previously".
"In the US there are two main data points today. First up isS&P/CS house prices (see up 0.8% MoM and 13.0% YoY, down from 13.4% in January). Clearly the US housing recovery is still continuing, although with significant caveats to its traditional pre-recession pattern. In particular, there appears to be a predominance of cash buyers, who are pushing out traditional family mortgage purchasers (a pattern also true in London at least). An article on Bloomberg today quotes the chairman of major US landlord Equity Residential putting a interesting spin on this trend: he blames the delayed marriage age in the States (which has risen by all of 1.4 years for men and 1 year for women in a decade) for the slump in home ownership rates from a 2004 peak of 69.2% to 65.2%; of course, this shift to wedding 14 months later (and therefore not wanting to buy a house and being happy paying rent instead?) just happens to have coincided with the onset of the last US recession and a subsequent recovery driven by QE and sharply rising corporate profits rather than median wages".
"We then have US consumer confidence for April, which is expected to edge up slightly from 82.3 to 83.2, and is likely to be the day’s major market mover. The next scheduled FOMC meeting also starts".